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Mid-Day Report: Yen Rally Continues as Risk Pulls Back Following US GDP Disappointment
Yen continues to strength in early US session in otherwise ranging market as risk rally pulls back following GDP disappointment. Q4 GDP in US showed 2.8% annualized growth, strongest pace in 1.5 years but missed expectation of 3.0%. DOW opened lower today and remains pressured at the time of writing. USD/JPY dips further to as low as 76.76 so far while GBP/JPY is also heading back to 120 level. As noted in prior reports, DOW is facing strong resistance from 2011 high at 12876 and is vulnerable for a pull back after the rally since December. When that happens, USD/JPY could possibly be dragged below key near term support of 76.55. Euro is relatively steady after solid Italian bill auction. Italy sold EUR 11b of six-month bills today at yield … Read entire article »
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Mid-Day Report: Yen Rally Continues as Risk Pulls Back Following US GDP Disappointment
Yen continues to strength in early US session in otherwise ranging market as risk rally pulls back following GDP disappointment. Q4 GDP in US showed 2.8% annualized growth, strongest pace in 1.5 … Read more »
Exporters’ Buying Pushes Yen Higher
By: Barbara Zigah The Japanese Yen, which had fallen to a one-month low earlier this week, edged higher against the U.S. Dollar helped by exporters’ month-end buying spree. The Euro also held onto … Read more »
Daily Report: Euro Retreats on Greece, Yen Surges
Euro pares some gains ahead of weekend as Greece and private sectors are still struggling to conclude a plan for the debt swap arrangement. IIF Chief Dallara said there was “some progress” … Read more »
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Daily Report: Euro Extends Rally, Germany to Discuss French Greek Debt Proposal
Euro extends its broad based rally against major currencies today on optimism that Greece's problem is solved in near term after yesterday's parliamentary passage of austerity plan. The near term resolution in … Read more »
Greek Vote of Confidence Gives Euro a Lift
By: Barbara Zigah The Greek government managed to survive a confidence vote in Parliament, helping send the Euro briefly higher. A round of profit taking afterward brought the common currency back down but … Read more »
As Crucial Vote Looms, Euro Reflects Investor Optimism
By: Barbara Zigah In spite of the public protests and violence which erupted yesterday on the streets of Athens, investors appear confident that the Greek Parliamentary vote needed to push through additional austerity … Read more »
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Exporters’ Buying Pushes Yen Higher
By: Barbara Zigah The Japanese Yen, which had fallen to a one-month low earlier this week, edged higher against the U.S. Dollar helped by exporters’ month-end buying spree. The Euro also held onto the recent gains made against the U.S. Dollar, the aftereffect of the Fed’s commitment to keep interest rates near zero through 2014. Following the Fed’s announcement on Wednesday night, the Euro rose to a 5-week high against the greenback, as markets were generally taken by surprise by the Fed’s posturing, as well as a decidedly dovish leaning. Analysts expects that the U.S. Dollar might see some more selling but the underlying problems in the Eurozone will, sooner rather than later, put pressure back … Read entire article »
Daily Report: Euro Retreats on Greece, Yen Surges
Euro pares some gains ahead of weekend as Greece and private sectors are still struggling to conclude a plan for the debt swap arrangement. IIF Chief Dallara said there was “some progress” after a two-hour meeting with Greek Prime Minister Papademos yesterday and work will continue today. Focus of yesterday and today was on legal and technical issues and the officials are aiming at completing the deal soon. It’s believed that the major obstacle, the coupon, rate is “parked” for the moment and the group will finish details of the overall package first. It’s also reported that ECB, despite its opposition, would be included in the deal to some extent. Greece is still targeting to … Read entire article »
Mid-Day Report: Risk Rally Extends after Italian Auction, Dollar Selloff Continues
Dollar’s broad based decline continues today on strong risk appetite. European equities are generally boosted by Fed’s low interest rate pledge. Successful Italian auction adds more fuel to risk rally. Italy sold maximum amount of EUR 5b of short-term bonds in the first auction after SP downgraded the country’s rating by two notches. Italy sold EUR 4.5b of January 2014 CTZ bonds and EUR 0.5 b of off-the-run September 2014 bonds. Yield on the two-year zero coupon bonds dropped to 3.76%, lowest since August. 10 year benchmark yield dropped further away from 7% level to 6.09% while five year CDS dropped to 410bps. In addition, there are reports that Greece private bond holders are willing … Read entire article »
US Dollar and the Fed Announcement
By: Barbara Zigah The U.S. Dollar steadied against the Japanese Yen in Asian trading, returning some gains and cutting broad losses following yesterday’s Federal Reserve announcement which showed a more dovish sentiment than was expected. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke announced that interest rates would be hold at the current levels until 2014 at the earliest, and that the central bank might consider more easing measures to stimulate the economy. As reported at 12:01 p.m. (JST) in Tokyo, the Yen was trading at 77.76 Japanese Yen after hitting a 2-month peak of 78.28 Japanese Yen in the overnight session on the EBS trading platform. One currency analyst from Tokyo expects that the U.S. Dollar’s topside has gotten too … Read entire article »
Daily Report: Dollar Extends Post FOMC Selloff
Dollar’s post FOMC decline extends further in Asia today with EUR/USD trading firm above 1.31 level. DOW managed to ride on Fed’s intention to keep rates low until late 2014 and staged a strong rebound to close up 81pts. However, such optimism doesn’t carry on to Asian markets as major indices are mixed with Nikkei down -48pts. But dollar’s weakness is clearly felt in commodity markets with gold holding firm above 1700 while crude oil is also trading above 100 psychological level. The CRB commodity index also managed to break through January’s high extend recent rebound. As noted before, dollar index’s break of 79.51 support confirmed at least near term topping and more downside would … Read entire article »
RBNZ Intends To Pause Longer
At the January meeting, the RBNZ left the OCR unchanged at 2.5% and signaled that the pause might be longer than previously anticipated. Despite the seemingly more dovish statement, policymakers saw some improvements in household spending and the housing market. Policymakers believed it’s prudent to keep the OCR on hold at 2.5% but the words ‘for now’ were removed in the statement this time. This probably signals that interest rates will stay at current level longer than previously expected. Policymakers acknowledged that the global economy remains ‘fragile’ and ‘risks to the outlook remain’. Yet, financial market sentiment has ‘improved slightly’. Concerning the domestic market, the economy has shown ‘modest growth’ with household spending and the housing … Read entire article »
Fed Keeps Interests Low At Least Until Late 2014
The Fed delivered a dovish policy statement in January, stating the Fed funds rate will stay at exceptionally low level ‘at least through late 2014′. There were two other notable changes made at the meeting. First, the Fed released interest rate projections of participants. Second, the central bank released a statement on its longer-run goals and strategy, indicating a 2% long-run target for the PCE deflator. The dovish tone of the statement and the press conference was a reflection of the highly uncertain global economic outlook which was supported by FOMC’s downward revision in growth forecast over the next three years. We retain the view that the Fed will implement QE3 in the second half … Read entire article »
Dollar Plummets, Stocks Surge as Fed Extend Low Rate Pledge to Late 2014
Dollar tumbles broadly and stock soars after Fed pledged to keep rates low until late 2014. That’s firstly much later than prior indication to keep rates low until mid-2013 at least. Secondly, it’s even later than what most analysts thought, that is late 2013 or early 2014. Fed held rates unchanged at 0-0.25% as widely expected . In the accompanying statement Fed said that while there were some improvements in labor market conditions, unemployment rate “remains elevated”. Also, “growth in business fixed investment has slowed” and housing remains “depressed. Fed expects growth in the coming quarters to be modest” and unemployment rate will only decline “gradually. There are also downside risks to growth from strains … Read entire article »
Mid-Day Report: Dollar Mildly Higher ahead of FOMC, Rates Projection Awaited
Dollar is mildly firmer today on risk aversion as traders are awaiting the FOMC meeting. Fed is widely expected to keep rates and the quantitative easing program unchanged. Nonetheless, today’s meeting will market a historical change in Fed communications. A main focus is the new fed fund rates projection based on individual member’s forecast. Fed released two templates of the charts last week which should show when FOMC members expect to have the first rate hike, and expectation of the target rate of at the end of the next three years and the longer run. The projections could show the first hike at end of 2013. Next in … Read entire article »